One of my favorite recent reads has been The Change Function, by Pip Coburn. The book attempts to answer the tough question of why some technologies take off and others crash and burn. His theory:
The Change Function = f ( user crisis vs. total perceived pain of adoption )
Basically that change only occurs when a user’s current pain outweighs the total perceived pain of adopting the new thing. “Perceived” is a key word in his formula. The book goes on to explain how some recent/future disruptive technology changes can be analyzed against this idea, as well as some of the flops. Although it takes some getting used to his writing style, I quite enjoyed his ideas.
You can learn more about the author on his site Coburn Ventures.